Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 20.581950 22.441748 24.505525 26.988485 29.926541 33.334203 37.649850
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 17.758916 20.174020 23.056774 26.832326 31.779571 38.255141 47.787514
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 15.762430 18.433207 21.794883 26.495504 33.196470 42.976007 59.729843
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 14.308134 17.103523 20.769186 26.173078 34.452158 47.811395 74.582993
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 13.214223 16.074639 19.952339 25.928816 35.687273 53.007407 94.037028
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 12.361717 15.257756 19.295277 25.763421 36.953585 58.739973 120.803507
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 11.548507 14.406625 18.474862 25.186604 37.340217 62.909578 149.767440
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 11.255245 14.252935 18.647968 26.217621 40.912426 76.017632 244.908173
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 10.713673 13.688318 18.127654 25.978739 41.914891 83.483641 354.893591
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 10.305584 13.286173 17.815845 26.051005 43.589868 94.217352 620.562639
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 9.971967 12.968614 17.604007 26.266174 45.650898 108.274660 1585.308193
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 9.646076 12.638590 17.338719 26.336345 47.397542 123.398245 16259.832880
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 9.277307 12.224992 16.909481 26.048293 48.229533 136.341270 NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 8.989933 11.922090 16.643919 26.056383 49.894113 156.849969 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.685968 11.575677 16.277047 25.808805 50.791393 175.505158 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 8.402650 11.247302 15.918082 25.534557 51.555962 196.138971 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 8.149576 10.954880 15.602336 25.316349 52.457303 221.911727 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 7.924738 10.697311 15.331362 25.165089 53.558440 255.609826 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 7.660235 10.363306 14.902579 24.613989 53.163789 272.666596 NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 7.618851 10.393710 15.137282 25.607099 58.655067 421.634567 NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 7.423435 10.158592 14.865550 25.378322 59.503776 503.984674 NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 7.276365 9.998299 14.724149 25.448197 61.624272 682.139180 NaN
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 7.153721 9.873790 14.642326 25.655220 64.469843 1058.121023 NaN